Lebanon: is this the start of a World War?
Christopher Allbritton provides the latest on a Hezbollah-fuelled conflict in Beirut, suggesting it may be a coup. Juan Cole weighs in saying it’s 2 steps closer to a civil war. But the link he provides to veteran correspondent Liz Sly includes the big picture:
The last time Lebanese fought street battles on this scale was during the 1975-90 civil war, when Muslims and Christians fought in a variety of combinations. But never did Lebanese Sunnis and Shiites directly clash, making this a dangerous new development, both for Lebanon and for a region rife with Sunni-Shiite fault lines.
Standing behind the factions are their respective patrons, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in the case of the pro-government forces, and Iran and Syria on the Shiite side. As long as Iran and the U.S. are not talking, it is unlikely their clients elsewhere will see fit to compromise, said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Endowment’s Middle East Center in Beirut.
“This is a very serious deterioration,” he said. “There’s already a Sunni-Shiite war in Iraq. and if this continues there could be a third one in Bahrain, a fourth in Kuwait, a fifth in Saudi Arabia and so on. These are oil-producing areas. You’re already talking about $120-a-barrel oil now, and wars in these countries are really going to get people’s attention.”
In addition to the potential for a Middle East-wide war (with its potential to involve the entire oil dependent world) between now and Labor Day, the odds of a massive oil price spike that pushes gasoline to $5/gallon is extraordinarily high.
And just when Republicans thought things couldn’t get any worse for them … and for our exhausted troops … and for the majority of the citizens of the Middle East caught in the middle of the war zone created by extremists in their governments and the terror orgs … and for all of us who’ll foot the bills.
After the housing bubble, we’ll get our oil bubble and maybe even a war bubble. And the only bright side to all of it is that bubbles soon collapse.
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- May 9, 2008








The conflict in Lebanon is exactly what Israel and the US want
to see. It gives Israel another pretense to attack Lebanon, and test out more new toys they have receieved from the Pentagon. The last Israeli war with Lebanon was supposed to be a cakewalk for Israel, and was encouraged by Cheney. After the Israelis successfully subdued Lebanon, it was supposed to weaken Syria enough that either the Assad government would collapse, or Israel would have an excuse to launch yet another "defensive" war into Syria. In the meantime, the US was supposed to have quieted the Iraqi situation enought to enable a strike on Iran. As PNAC has said, and Bush has parrotted, the US was attempting to remake the Middle East, presumably into a compliant region of the world that would allow US control of a large portion of the world's oil.
Watch Lebanon very closely. On the heels of the suspicious attack on an alleged Syrian nuclear site, it signals the possible start of a new, larger Middle East war. That war will necessarily involve the US, as we are an instigator and eager participant. And what will this mean to the election here? It will be meant to boost McCain's chances, as a campaign based solely on fear and militarism is the only chance he has to win.
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By UffdaguyMay 9, 2008 - 2:53pmBut...but......but............
If things get really shitty in the Middle East, that means that Chris the Son of DOG, will return in a great white Escalade, bringing cheap gas to those who call Him LARD.
Or something like that.
You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury
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By LiberalIconoclastMay 9, 2008 - 3:09pmWAR.... Good God...Y'all
Wow you guys really do hate this country.
Nothing like a draft to change the attitudes in this place.
That's it folks now try and alienate our jewish brother's.
You've already lost 30% of your democratic base and with your outright support of hezzbollah and other terrorist organization's I'm sure we can move that number closer to 50%.
Why do you hate this country so much. Perhaps you should move to Lebanon or Syria and see how great it is. Have u ever been there? Didn't think so.
It's Okay I'm sure Mr. Obama will sit down, sip some green tean with them and discuss a peaceful solution to countries that want to exterminate the holy state of Israel.
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By chilcoMay 9, 2008 - 3:39pmI have an idea...
ENLIST AND FIGHT, coward.
http://www.goarmy.com
http://www.goarmyreserve.com
http://www.1800goguard.com
http://www.marines.com
Why do you hate the troops, republinazi?
You don't have to burn books to destroy a culture. Just get people to stop reading them.
---Ray Bradbury
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By LiberalIconoclastMay 9, 2008 - 3:59pmLike all good non-thinking repubs and Hillbots
(one and the same), you equate anything less than 150% support for Israel with being pro-terrorist, anti-American, and anti-Semitic. I have news for you. No one is perfect, and that applies to nations as well as individuals.
Why don't you move to Syria or Lebanon or the West Bank or Gaza, and see how wonderful it is. How about Gaza, with an unemployment rate of 70%, and almost no fuel, as it has been shut down by Israel. No incoming medicine, the power plant has been shut down, so people can get sick, sit in the dark and sweat, and enjoy having no money for little luxuries like food. Hmmmm, where have I heard that before? Could it be that great Bush victory, Iraq?
You say we shouldn't sit down and discuss peaceful solutions to countries that want to exterminate the "holy" state of Israel? Well, we sat down over many decades to discuss peaceful solutions that wanted to wipe out our own country, and you know what? We're still here, none the worse for wear. If it's good enough to ensure our own survival, why isn't it good enough for Israel? Oh, that's right. They are "holy", and the only way to make sure the "holy chosen ones" are safe is to butcher as many millions as it takes to make them feel all comfy and cozy. You would have thought that their spies would have stolen enough secrets from us to make them more comfortable, and their sales of some of our most secret and sophisticated weapons to China would have given them enough new friends to keep them safe. That, and the wars we promised to fight for them to make them feel good. Cheney promising in 2001 that we would take out Iraq, and then take out Iran and Syria after that at Israel's request.
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By UffdaguyMay 9, 2008 - 4:33pmThis has nothing to do with hating your country.
I doubt that Cubans hate Cuba, just the people occupying their government. I am guessing the same applies to Burma and every other nation infested by a tyrannical regime.
Loving your country means doing what you can to maintain its values and the things that make it a great nation. It means honoring and abiding by the doctrine that defines your nation. When tyrants enter high positions in government, especially by unorthodox means such as an appointment by the Extreme court, it is the duty of those citizens to speak out and make it clear that they do not approve of what a tyrannical regime is trying to do to that nation.
If this Democratic congress sits on their asses and allows the little boy to start his third war in 7 years, I hope there is a draft. Nothing will put a stop to aggressive fascist imperialism quicker than bringing the American population as a whole intimately into the mix. When the ignorant among us start seeing their own kids dying or returning maimed to subpar veterans benefits, I think they will get off of their obese, lazy, American-idol watching, NASCAR, NFL and gun loving, gas-guzzling asses and do what a small group of patriots have been trying to do before the little boy ever started this catastrophe.
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By AntillectualMay 10, 2008 - 8:43amHappy 60th Israel
No other tribe or race has been as targeted as the Jews.
Uffda and Liberal your hatred for Jews and the state of Israel is palpable.
I would assume the ultra-liberal/marxist's supporting Obama also feel this way.
The Syrians and Palestinian's chose war over peace a long time ago. Too bad. They lost!
It's fair to say both of you guys like to side with loser's.
Arab states in the middle east have been given opportunities time and time again to make peace, each time they choose the sword whether it be Nasser or Arafat.
Long live Israel.
I hope my Jewish brother's can see what you truly believe.
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By chilcoMay 9, 2008 - 9:03pmThose damn Muslims.
Why should they care if white Christians plop a buttload of the Muslims' mortal enemy right smack dab in the middle of the hornet's nest in their back yard and then supply them with superior military technology?
If Hilter had won WW2 and decided to plop a muslim state in the middle of the USA by confiscating US territory, we too would likely complain and say that this Muslim state in the middle of America does not have the right to exist. I am going to make a wild guess that we would be stirring shit with them, as they would with us, however, had Hiltler won WW2, he would have had the majority opinion on his side, and the rest of the world would feel the Muslim state within America had the right to exist as a sovereign nation, and we should just shut the fuck up and accept it.
Now let's suppose this Muslim state wasn't satisfied with the size of the territory and confiscated land outside of the borders defined by Hitler. We would likely feel as though they should retreat to the borders already defined, and if they refused, I am pretty sure we would be tossing bombs over the new border too. If the new Muslim state was supplied with state of the art military technology, but we lacked that after the defeat in WW2, I also predict we would resort to whatever means it took to fight our enemy. Others would view this as terrorism.
The difference between people like chilco and rational people is that some of us don't view the Jews are the chosen people of God, and like about every century before this one, there are always a group of people that think Revelation is predicting the end of time in their lifetime, Of course each time they were wrong, just like the fundies are now.
Rational people want to approach conflict from the standpoint of reality, not fantasy or some goofy sense of entitlement based on interpretation of words of Man masquerading as those of a god from thousands of years ago.
Rational people also understand the degree of interference by those infesting our government of sovereign Muslim predominant nations. Combine thousands of years of strife between Muslims and Jews with the Jews new partner in crime over the last several decades, understand that those in the Middle east know exactly what the Bush regime is up to when it comes to conquering oil containing nations out of greed and it becomes clearer that we and Israel are not innocent bystanders relentlessly pestered by Muslims. Quite the contrary, both have done their share of pestering Muslims for years, and I would argue that our side has taken the pestering to a new extreme. One example is our overthrowing of a democratically elected Iranian president in 1953 replacing him with a dictator. How many Muslim governments have done that to the US?
This post is not advocating for the Muslim cause, though predictaby shallow minds will try to profess that I support "terrorists." I am merely pointing out that we know Bush has committed thousands of crimes and war crimes in order to occupy Iraq. The world community views both the invasion and occupation as illegal. Israel's current existence was materialized by a Judeo/Christians, and Israel has confiscated more land than was intended. The reason they were placed where they are is because of the scripture from thousands of years ago. In other words, this whole thing was an in your face approach to the Muslim community.
We cannot blame others for reacting exactly the same way we would in their circumstances, but we sure as hell would be blaming those that caused them.
Some of us in America don't want to stay in perpetual war just so Exxon can make 11 billion in pure profit per quarter while the fossil fuels run out and we remain unprepared for that. Many of us definitely don't want to go to war based on religious fantasy. This is the very reason that we need to elect a rational, non-fascist , non-corporatist president in November. Hopefully the world will survive until we do have rational leadership and representation. It appears the Bush regime is doing all they can to make sure the world doesn't survive, whether a messiah thinks its a good time to come or not.
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By AntillectualMay 10, 2008 - 6:28amYour ignorance is truly astounding...
are you sure you aren't illuminottie snottie? It's hard to believe that two separate people could share the same unthinking, bombastic viewpoints.
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By UffdaguyMay 12, 2008 - 12:21pmhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/mi
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7393462.stm
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By MichtouMay 9, 2008 - 9:29pmNo other tribe or race has been as targeted as the Jews.
Competing for world's greatest martyr is never convincing to others who've been through genocides. I don't think you really have a grasp on the Middle East nations: Lebanon is a top vacation destination, has lots of Christians, but a weak army. Israel cannot justify all it does on the basis of its being so ostracized by Muslim nations, and the majority of its own people think the government is too repressive towards Palestinians.
Ultra liberals supported Kucinich and view Obama as a centrist. Marxists? Where? That's empty name-calling. And American Jews know Obama as a strong defender of Israel.
But thank you for playing.
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By KevinHaydenMay 10, 2008 - 8:55am